Home / ml4t / skills · concepts/regime-awareness/SKILL.md · GitHub

ml4t-regime-awareness skillA

ml4t-regime-awareness is agent-read markdown (skill) from ml4t/skills: Market regimes as conditioning features for risk scaling, not timing signals. Use when incorporating regime detection into strategy logic..

Indexed from public GitHub and served as immutable, content-addressed versions. Install it pinned to an exact SHA-256 with the mdr CLI, and every file is verified against the hash recorded here before it reaches your agent. The deterministic audit below grades the latest version, and the same file always earns the same grade.

What the file says

# Regime Awareness

Markets alternate between regimes (low/high volatility, trending/mean-reverting, risk-on/risk-off). Regime detection for diagnostics and risk scaling is reliable. Regime detection for market timing is not.

## The Problem

Regime-switching models promise to predict when to be in or out of the market. In practice, regime transitions are identified with high confidence only after they have already occurred. A model that correctly labels the March 2020 crash as "crisis" does so 2-4 weeks late, after the drawdown has already happened. Trading on regime predictions produces whipsaw losses and underperforms a regime-conditioned but always-invested approach.

The correct use of regimes is as a conditioning feature: scale risk, adjust position sizes, and evaluate strategy performance per regime - but stay invested.

## The Pattern

### WRONG

```python
# Regime-timing: go to cash when model predicts "bear"
def generate_signal(data, regime_model):
    regime = regime_model.predict(data)
    if regime == "bear":
        return 0.0       # exit market entirely
    else:
        return model.predict(data)  # normal signal
```

### CORRECT

```python
import numpy as np
…

Read the whole file at its exact version.

How to install

Latest version
mdr add ml4t/skills/ml4t-regime-awareness@git:20260901.c415df0
Exact content
mdr add ml4t/skills/ml4t-regime-awareness@sha256:460a78e9ffab166b

Pin to a label to follow the author's releases, or to a sha256 to freeze the exact bytes forever. Either way the resolved hash is written to mdr.lock, and mdr install reproduces it on any machine.

Badge

mdr badge

[![mdr](https://markdownregistry.com/badge/art_bhg72zwzvce5ilqw.svg)](https://markdownregistry.com/a/art_bhg72zwzvce5ilqw)

1 badge views in 30 days

Versions

versioncommittedcommitsizeaudit
git:20260901.c415df0 latest2026-09-01 c415df0 4,380 BA view · diff
git:20260528.303089e2026-05-28 303089e 4,384 BA view

Audit of the latest version

A  17 of 17 checks passed. Deterministic, no model, same answer every run.
  • pass: Frontmatter block present
  • pass: Frontmatter declares a name
  • pass: Frontmatter declares a description
  • pass: Size between 200 bytes and 200 KB (4380 bytes)
  • pass: No zero-width or bidi control characters
  • pass: No instruction hidden inside an HTML comment
  • pass: No link to an exfiltration or paste host
  • pass: No credential-shaped string
  • pass: No instruction to send local credentials anywhere
  • pass: No text hidden with inline styles
  • pass: No prompt-injection phrasing
  • pass: No curl or wget piped into a shell
  • pass: No recursive delete of root, home or parent
  • pass: No instruction to read or print local credentials
  • pass: No base64 blob over 200 characters
  • pass: No link to a raw IP address
  • pass: No script tag

Source

GitHub

ml4t/skills · 19 stars · license Apache-2.0 · pushed 2026-09-24 · branch main

API

GET https://markdownregistry.com/api/v1/artifacts/art_bhg72zwzvce5ilqw
GET https://markdownregistry.com/api/v1/resolve?ref=ml4t/skills/ml4t-regime-awareness
GET https://markdownregistry.com/api/v1/blob/460a78e9ffab166b7a07fc5607056555d3cf259482aaa5d1b7f2201b91ddf8d0

Your agent does the legwork. You hear about the deals worth your word. Hand yours the standing instructions at modelranch.com and it joins the network that reads files like this one.

More from ml4t/skills

AGENTS.md agents
ml4t/skills · AGENTS.md
git:20260901.e8c1b9a · audit A · 19 stars
CLAUDE.md claude
ml4t/skills · CLAUDE.md
git:20260901.c415df0 · audit A · 19 stars
ml4t-agent-governance skill
ml4t/skills · advanced-ai/agent-governance/SKILL.md · Security and governance controls for autonomous financial agents. Use when agents can call tools, read untrusted…
git:20260901.3c85a54 · audit A · 19 stars
ml4t-agent-state-memory skill
ml4t/skills · advanced-ai/agent-state-memory/SKILL.md · Durable agent state, memory, and replay for autonomous research workflows. Use when an agent must resume, audit, or…
git:20260901.c415df0 · audit A · 19 stars
ml4t-agent-tool-contracts skill
ml4t/skills · advanced-ai/agent-tool-contracts/SKILL.md · Typed tool contracts for autonomous research agents. Use when exposing files, search, databases, or execution tools to…
git:20260901.c415df0 · audit A · 19 stars
ml4t-multi-agent-forecasting skill
ml4t/skills · advanced-ai/multi-agent-forecasting/SKILL.md · Multi-agent probability forecasting with diversity, aggregation, and debate controls. Use when combining several agent…
git:20260901.c415df0 · audit A · 19 stars
ml4t-research-operator skill
ml4t/skills · advanced-ai/research-operator/SKILL.md · Thin autonomous research operator pattern for ML4T experiments. Use when an agent should inspect artifacts, read…
git:20260901.c415df0 · audit A · 19 stars
ml4t-cost-model skill
ml4t/skills · backtest/cost-model/SKILL.md · Commission, slippage, and market-impact cost models for realistic strategy simulation. Use when backtesting to ensure…
git:20260901.297789f · audit A · 19 stars
ml4t-rl-execution skill
ml4t/skills · backtest/rl-execution/SKILL.md · Reinforcement learning for trade execution and hedging. Use when optimizing execution algorithms or dynamic hedging…
git:20260901.c415df0 · audit A · 19 stars
ml4t-run-backtest skill
ml4t/skills · backtest/run-backtest/SKILL.md · Event-driven backtesting with realistic order execution, position tracking, and performance measurement. Use when…
git:20260901.c415df0 · audit A · 19 stars
ml4t-sensitivity-analysis skill
ml4t/skills · backtest/sensitivity-analysis/SKILL.md · Test strategy robustness to parameter variation and detect overfitting cliffs. Use when validating that performance is…
git:20260901.85fc79b · audit A · 19 stars
ml4t-tearsheet skill
ml4t/skills · backtest/tearsheet/SKILL.md · Generate comprehensive performance reports from backtest returns. Use when summarizing backtest results for review or…
git:20260901.32123e7 · audit A · 19 stars

Every file in ml4t/skills

Browse by kind, by grade A, or by owner.