anofox-forecast-backtest SKILL.md skillA

anofox-forecast-backtest from datazoode/anofox-forecast is an agent skill: a SKILL.md folder an AI agent loads when a task calls for it.

Install it, pinned
mdr add datazoode/anofox-forecast/anofox-forecast-backtest@v2026.09.26

Pins v2026.09.26 in mdr.lock. Pin the fingerprint instead.

Audit grade
A, 17 of 17 checks passed
Kind
SKILL.md skill
Repository
datazoode/anofox-forecast
Path
plugins/anofox-forecast/skills/anofox-forecast-backtest/SKILL.md
Versions recorded
13
Latest version
v2026.09.26, committed Oct 28, 2026
First version recorded
Sep 18, 2026
Size
18,889 bytes
Repository stars
45
License
a license file GitHub does not identify

Backtesting, cross-validation, evaluation metrics, and conformal prediction intervals for the anofox_forecast DuckDB extension. Use when evaluating forecast accuracy, comparing models with time-series-aware CV, computing metrics (MAE / RMSE / MAPE / MASE / coverage), or attaching distribution-free prediction intervals to forecasts.

Collected from public GitHub. Every version is saved exactly as it was and never changes. Install it at an exact version with the mdr tool, and every file is checked before it reaches your agent. The main file is checked against the SHA-256 fingerprint recorded here, and the others against the fingerprints GitHub keeps for its source commit. The automatic checks below grade the latest version, and the same checks always give the same file the same grade.

What the file says

# Anofox Forecast — Backtesting, CV, Metrics & Conformal Cheat Sheet

**Extension:** `anofox_forecast` v2026.09.26 (Rust crate `anofox-forecast` v0.16.2) | **DuckDB:** v2.0.0 / v1.5.6 | **Dual naming:** `ts_*` and `anofox_fcst_ts_*`

Time-series-aware cross-validation, error metrics, and distribution-free intervals.

## Critical gotchas

- **`ts_backtest_auto_by` was REMOVED**, along with the orphaned internal `_ts_backtest_native` table function that backed it (Phase 12 D-07). Use the two-step CV workflow (`ts_cv_folds_by` → `ts_cv_forecast_by`) instead.
- **Metric `_by` table macros are deprecated.** They're ~2400× slower than the scalar + `GROUP BY` pattern and don't parallelise. Use scalars. If you do use them, their results don't depend on `source` row order or on `source` being a UNION ALL (#285 fixed), so no pre-sorting (and no `SET threads = 1`) is needed, for `ts_mase_by` too. The full deprecated family: `ts_mae_by`, `ts_rmse_by`, `ts_mse_by`, `ts_mape_by`, `ts_smape_by`, `ts_bias_by`, `ts_mase_by`, `ts_rmae_by`, `ts_r2_by`, `ts_coverage_by`, `ts_quantile_loss_by`, `ts_interval_width_by`. Each maps to a scalar (`ts_mae`, `ts_rmse`, … below) called under `GROUP BY`. Two…
…

Read the whole file at its exact version.

How to install

The exact contents, by fingerprint
mdr add datazoode/anofox-forecast/anofox-forecast-backtest@sha256:5bf539f4abf328da

The line at the top of this page pins the label v2026.09.26, which is what most people want. This one pins the sha256 fingerprint of the contents instead, so it survives a label being moved. Either way the exact version is written to mdr.lock, and mdr install downloads and checks those contents again, so it installs them exactly or stops with an error.

Badge

mdr badge

[![mdr](https://markdownregistry.com/badge/art_fnknmjg4x5yti3tb.svg)](https://markdownregistry.com/a/art_fnknmjg4x5yti3tb)

3 badge image fetches in 30 days. What the badge shows.

Versions

The registry has recorded 13 versions of this file, between Sep 18, 2026 and Oct 28, 2026, about one every 3 days.

versioncommittedcommitsizeaudit
v2026.09.26 latest2026-10-28 4b7f4de 18,889 BA view · diff
v2026.09.262026-10-28 eeb26da 18,087 BA view · diff
v2026.09.262026-10-28 fdff432 18,100 BA view · diff
v2026.09.262026-10-28 f069d0e 17,844 BA view · diff
v2026.09.262026-10-23 73f01b4 17,012 BA view · diff
v2026.09.262026-10-22 7f33142 16,818 BA view · diff
v2026.09.262026-10-16 3a62628 16,810 BA view · diff
v2026.09.262026-10-15 2cbb500 16,802 BA view · diff
v2026.09.262026-10-15 12b3642 16,802 BA view · diff
v2026.09.262026-10-14 c49016e 15,619 BA view · diff
v2026.09.262026-10-10 87e6f99 14,111 BA view · diff
v0.15.32026-09-18 7e23980 11,660 BA view · diff
v0.15.32026-09-18 e2d0889 9,805 BA view

Audit of the latest version

A  17 of 17 checks passed. Fixed automatic checks with no AI involved, so the same checks give the same answer every run.
  • pass: Frontmatter block present
  • pass: Frontmatter declares a name
  • pass: Frontmatter declares a description
  • pass: Size between 200 bytes and 200 KB (18889 bytes)
  • pass: No zero-width or bidi control characters
  • pass: No instruction hidden inside an HTML comment
  • pass: No link to an exfiltration or paste host
  • pass: No credential-shaped string
  • pass: No instruction to send local credentials anywhere
  • pass: No text hidden with inline styles
  • pass: No prompt-injection phrasing
  • pass: No curl or wget piped into a shell
  • pass: No recursive delete of root, home or parent
  • pass: No instruction to read or print local credentials
  • pass: No base64 blob over 200 characters
  • pass: No link to a raw IP address
  • pass: No script tag

Source

GitHub

datazoode/anofox-forecast · 45 stars · license a license file GitHub does not identify · pushed 2026-10-31 · branch main

API

GET https://markdownregistry.com/api/v1/artifacts/art_fnknmjg4x5yti3tb
GET https://markdownregistry.com/api/v1/resolve?ref=datazoode/anofox-forecast/anofox-forecast-backtest
GET https://markdownregistry.com/api/v1/blob/5bf539f4abf328daf96fed9093464132be5be873909a814eb0dbabfe51fb184a

Your AI assistant does the legwork. You hear about the deals worth your word. Hand yours the standing instructions at modelranch.com and it joins the network that reads files like this one.

Guides: the SKILL.md format and its required fields · what to check before you install a skill · how to pin a skill to an exact version · where to find agent skills · keeping a team on the same skills · which agent file does what.

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