Home / ml4t / skills · validation/deflated-sharpe/SKILL.md · GitHub

ml4t-deflated-sharpe skillA

ml4t-deflated-sharpe is agent-read markdown (skill) from ml4t/skills: Adjust the Sharpe ratio for multiple testing bias when selecting from many trials. Use when reporting strategy performance after parameter or model search..

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What the file says

# Deflated Sharpe Ratio

Reporting the best Sharpe ratio from N trials is misleading. The Deflated Sharpe Ratio corrects for the number of trials, non-normal returns, and sample size to test whether observed performance reflects genuine skill.

## The Problem

If you test 100 strategy variants and report the best Sharpe, you are performing selection bias. Under the null of zero skill, the expected maximum Sharpe across N trials grows with `sqrt(2 * log(N))`, measured in units of the spread of Sharpes across those trials: at 100 trials the best result is about 2.5 spreads above zero before any alpha exists. Without correction, most "discovered" strategies are artifacts that fail out of sample.

## The Pattern

### WRONG

```python
import numpy as np

# Test 50 parameter combos, report the best
sharpes = []
for params in param_grid:  # 50 configurations
    returns = run_backtest(params)
    sr = returns.mean() / returns.std() * np.sqrt(252)
    sharpes.append(sr)

best = max(sharpes)
print(f"Strategy Sharpe: {best:.2f}")  # Inflated by selection
```

### CORRECT

```python
import numpy as np
from scipy import stats

def deflated_sharpe_ratio(observed_sr, n_trials, sr_std, n_obs,
…

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Source

GitHub

ml4t/skills · 19 stars · license Apache-2.0 · pushed 2026-09-24 · branch main

API

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