think-analysis-of-competing-hypotheses SKILL.md skillA
think-analysis-of-competing-hypotheses from product-on-purpose/thinking-framework-skills is an agent skill: a SKILL.md folder an AI agent loads when a task calls for it.
mdr add product-on-purpose/thinking-framework-skills/think-analysis-of-competing-hypotheses@v0.1.0Pins v0.1.0 in mdr.lock. Pin the fingerprint instead.
- Audit grade
- A, 17 of 17 checks passed
- Kind
- SKILL.md skill
- Repository
- product-on-purpose/thinking-framework-skills
- Path
skills/think-analysis-of-competing-hypotheses/SKILL.md- Versions recorded
- 2
- Latest version
- v0.1.0, committed Oct 16, 2026
- First version recorded
- Jun 20, 2026
- Size
- 6,021 bytes
- Repository stars
- 21
- License
- Apache-2.0
Handles a by-name request for ACH (Analysis of Competing Hypotheses), the evidence-by-hypothesis disconfirmation matrix, honestly. Controlled trials found ACH raises confidence with no accuracy gain and does not reduce confirmation bias, so this skill does NOT build the matrix as if valid. It leads with that evidence, then routes to the evidence-based move the job actually needs (think-red-team-light, think-evidence-vs-inference-sort, or think-what-would-have-to-be-true). Use only when someone…
Collected from public GitHub. Every version is saved exactly as it was and never changes. Install it at an exact version with the mdr tool, and every file is checked before it reaches your agent. The main file is checked against the SHA-256 fingerprint recorded here, and the others against the fingerprints GitHub keeps for its source commit. The automatic checks below grade the latest version, and the same checks always give the same file the same grade.
What the file says
<!-- thinking-framework-skills | https://github.com/product-on-purpose/thinking-framework-skills | Apache-2.0 --> # Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH) ACH builds an evidence-by-hypothesis matrix, scores each item of evidence for how well it disconfirms each hypothesis, and favors the hypothesis with the least inconsistent evidence. It is a famous intelligence-analysis technique, and it was tested and found wanting: in randomized controlled studies it raised participants' confidence without improving accuracy, and showed no debiasing or judgment-quality gain. This skill therefore does not reproduce the matrix as if it were valid. It owns the request, leads with what the controlled evidence shows, and routes you to the evidence-based move your actual job needs. The output is an honest redirect brief, not a disconfirmation matrix with a declared winner. ## Before you run this: what the controlled evidence shows ACH is tier **X** (tested and found wanting, not merely undertested). On its own home population and stated purpose, the controlled record is null-to-negative: …
Read the whole file at its exact version.
How to install
mdr add product-on-purpose/thinking-framework-skills/think-analysis-of-competing-hypotheses@sha256:aaca944b6dbb863aThe line at the top of this page pins the label v0.1.0, which is what most people want. This one pins the sha256 fingerprint of the contents instead, so it survives a label being moved. Either way the exact version is written to mdr.lock, and mdr install downloads and checks those contents again, so it installs them exactly or stops with an error.
[](https://markdownregistry.com/a/art_uxwoyb5og7xooein)
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Versions
The registry has recorded 2 versions of this file, between Jun 20, 2026 and Oct 16, 2026, about one every 118 days.
| version | committed | commit | size | audit | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| v0.1.0 latest | 2026-10-16 | 28965de | 6,021 B | A | view · diff |
| v0.1.0 | 2026-06-20 | 105aec4 | 6,009 B | A | view |
Audit of the latest version
- pass: Frontmatter block present
- pass: Frontmatter declares a name
- pass: Frontmatter declares a description
- pass: Size between 200 bytes and 200 KB (6021 bytes)
- pass: No zero-width or bidi control characters
- pass: No instruction hidden inside an HTML comment
- pass: No link to an exfiltration or paste host
- pass: No credential-shaped string
- pass: No instruction to send local credentials anywhere
- pass: No text hidden with inline styles
- pass: No prompt-injection phrasing
- pass: No curl or wget piped into a shell
- pass: No recursive delete of root, home or parent
- pass: No instruction to read or print local credentials
- pass: No base64 blob over 200 characters
- pass: No link to a raw IP address
- pass: No script tag
Source
product-on-purpose/thinking-framework-skills · 21 stars · license Apache-2.0 · pushed 2026-10-19 · branch main
API
GET https://markdownregistry.com/api/v1/artifacts/art_uxwoyb5og7xooein GET https://markdownregistry.com/api/v1/resolve?ref=product-on-purpose/thinking-framework-skills/think-analysis-of-competing-hypotheses GET https://markdownregistry.com/api/v1/blob/aaca944b6dbb863a038e91864a23d32f6b99ca1f991dfca5111bba0426f5723f
Your AI assistant does the legwork. You hear about the deals worth your word. Hand yours the standing instructions at modelranch.com and it joins the network that reads files like this one.
Guides: the SKILL.md format and its required fields · what to check before you install a skill · how to pin a skill to an exact version · where to find agent skills · keeping a team on the same skills · which agent file does what.