estimate-calibrator SKILL.md skillA
estimate-calibrator from mathews-tom/armory is an agent skill: a SKILL.md folder an AI agent loads when a task calls for it.
mdr add mathews-tom/armory/estimate-calibrator@v1.1.1Pins v1.1.1 in mdr.lock. Pin the fingerprint instead.
- Audit grade
- A, 17 of 17 checks passed
- Kind
- SKILL.md skill
- Repository
- mathews-tom/armory
- Path
skills/estimate-calibrator/SKILL.md- Versions recorded
- 5
- Latest version
- v1.1.1, committed Apr 11, 2026
- First version recorded
- Mar 26, 2026
- Size
- 8,240 bytes
- Repository stars
- 334
- License
- MIT
Produces calibrated three-point PERT estimates (best/likely/worst) with confidence intervals, unknowns, and assumptions. Triggers on: "estimate this", "how long will this take", "effort estimate", "confidence interval", "story points", "t-shirt sizing". NOT for task decomposition, use task-decomposer.
Collected from public GitHub. Every version is saved exactly as it was and never changes. Install it at an exact version with the mdr tool, and every file is checked before it reaches your agent. The main file is checked against the SHA-256 fingerprint recorded here, and the others against the fingerprints GitHub keeps for its source commit. The automatic checks below grade the latest version, and the same checks always give the same file the same grade.
What the file says
# Estimate Calibrator Replaces single-point guesses with structured three-point estimates: decomposes work into atomic units, estimates best/likely/worst case for each, identifies unknowns and assumptions, calculates aggregate ranges using PERT, and assigns confidence levels with explicit rationale. ## Reference Files | File | Contents | Load When | | ---------------------------------- | ------------------------------------------------------------------------- | ---------------------- | | `references/estimation-methods.md` | PERT formula, three-point estimation, Monte Carlo basics | Always | | `references/unknown-categories.md` | Technical, scope, external, and organizational uncertainty types | Unknown identification | | `references/calibration-tips.md` | Cognitive biases in estimation, historical calibration, buffer strategies | Always | | `references/sizing-heuristics.md` | Common task size patterns, complexity indicators, reference class data | Quick sizing needed | ## Prerequisites …
Read the whole file at its exact version.
How to install
mdr add mathews-tom/armory/estimate-calibrator@sha256:8fa90d7305398240The line at the top of this page pins the label v1.1.1, which is what most people want. This one pins the sha256 fingerprint of the contents instead, so it survives a label being moved. Either way the exact version is written to mdr.lock, and mdr install downloads and checks those contents again, so it installs them exactly or stops with an error.
[](https://markdownregistry.com/a/art_znlsevvgty6gczq2)
1 badge image fetches in 30 days. What the badge shows.
Versions
The registry has recorded 5 versions of this file, between Mar 26, 2026 and Apr 11, 2026, about one every 4 days.
| version | committed | commit | size | audit | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| v1.1.1 latest | 2026-04-11 | 0aa221a | 8,240 B | A | view · diff |
| v1.1.1 | 2026-04-09 | 1cc63e5 | 8,684 B | B | view · diff |
| v1.1.1 | 2026-04-07 | b03849d | 8,670 B | B | view · diff |
| v1.1.0 | 2026-03-27 | d46cf2e | 8,670 B | B | view · diff |
| v1.1.0 | 2026-03-26 | 6fe71e6 | 8,667 B | A | view |
Audit of the latest version
- pass: Frontmatter block present
- pass: Frontmatter declares a name
- pass: Frontmatter declares a description
- pass: Size between 200 bytes and 200 KB (8240 bytes)
- pass: No zero-width or bidi control characters
- pass: No instruction hidden inside an HTML comment
- pass: No link to an exfiltration or paste host
- pass: No credential-shaped string
- pass: No instruction to send local credentials anywhere
- pass: No text hidden with inline styles
- pass: No prompt-injection phrasing
- pass: No curl or wget piped into a shell
- pass: No recursive delete of root, home or parent
- pass: No instruction to read or print local credentials
- pass: No base64 blob over 200 characters
- pass: No link to a raw IP address
- pass: No script tag
Source
mathews-tom/armory · 334 stars · license MIT · pushed 2026-10-20 · branch main
API
GET https://markdownregistry.com/api/v1/artifacts/art_znlsevvgty6gczq2 GET https://markdownregistry.com/api/v1/resolve?ref=mathews-tom/armory/estimate-calibrator GET https://markdownregistry.com/api/v1/blob/8fa90d7305398240338dcb20f5cf003aaaea3f86f7fccd4c2303086d4b312fd6
Your AI assistant does the legwork. You hear about the deals worth your word. Hand yours the standing instructions at modelranch.com and it joins the network that reads files like this one.
Guides: the SKILL.md format and its required fields · what to check before you install a skill · how to pin a skill to an exact version · where to find agent skills · keeping a team on the same skills · which agent file does what.