forecasting SKILL.md skillA
forecasting from ericrisco/rsc-harness is an agent skill: a SKILL.md folder an AI agent loads when a task calls for it.
mdr add ericrisco/rsc-harness/forecasting@git:20260729.f0c377fPins git:20260729.f0c377f in mdr.lock. Pin the fingerprint instead.
- Audit grade
- A, 17 of 17 checks passed
- Kind
- SKILL.md skill
- Repository
- ericrisco/rsc-harness
- Path
skills/forecasting/SKILL.md- Versions recorded
- 2
- Latest version
- git:20260729.f0c377f, committed Jul 29, 2026
- First version recorded
- Jun 2, 2026
- Size
- 11,081 bytes
- Repository stars
- 236
- License
- MIT
Use when projecting history forward — sales, demand, units, revenue, signups, traffic — into a defensible number with an error band: method by data shape, rolling-origin backtest, MASE vs the naive baseline. NOT an assumption-driven P&L or runway model (that is `financial-model`), NOT sizing reorder points or safety stock (that is `inventory`).
Collected from public GitHub. Every version is saved exactly as it was and never changes. Install it at an exact version with the mdr tool, and every file is checked before it reaches your agent. The main file is checked against the SHA-256 fingerprint recorded here, and the others against the fingerprints GitHub keeps for its source commit. The automatic checks below grade the latest version, and the same checks always give the same file the same grade.
What the file says
# Forecasting A forecast that cannot beat "repeat last period" is noise. Baseline first, fancy second. The naive forecast is free, instant, and the bar every model must clear — if your AutoARIMA loses to last-quarter-repeated, ship the repeat and say so. You are not done when a model produces a number. You are done when you can defend the number: which method, why that method for this data, how it scored against the naive baseline in a backtest, and the interval around the point. A point estimate with no error band is a guess wearing a lab coat. ## The deliverable contract Every forecast you ship is a reproducible artifact, not a number pasted in chat: 1. A **script** that reads the history and regenerates the forecast (no manual steps). 2. A **CSV/Parquet** with columns `ds, forecast, lo, hi` — timestamp, point, interval bounds. 3. A **one-paragraph accuracy readout**: WAPE + bias from a rolling-origin backtest, and MASE vs the naive baseline (MASE < 1.0 = you beat naive; ≥ 1.0 = ship the naive forecast instead). …
Read the whole file at its exact version.
How to install
mdr add ericrisco/rsc-harness/forecasting@sha256:9feab604d0eb6e55The line at the top of this page pins the label git:20260729.f0c377f, which is what most people want. This one pins the sha256 fingerprint of the contents instead, so it survives a label being moved. Either way the exact version is written to mdr.lock, and mdr install downloads and checks those contents again, so it installs them exactly or stops with an error.
[](https://markdownregistry.com/a/art_2yeglfon4czpjb3x)
2 badge image fetches in 30 days. What the badge shows.
Versions
The registry has recorded 2 versions of this file, between Jun 2, 2026 and Jul 29, 2026, about one every 57 days.
| version | committed | commit | size | audit | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| git:20260729.f0c377f latest | 2026-07-29 | f0c377f | 11,081 B | A | view · diff |
| git:20260602.bd03869 | 2026-06-02 | bd03869 | 11,332 B | A | view |
Audit of the latest version
- pass: Frontmatter block present
- pass: Frontmatter declares a name
- pass: Frontmatter declares a description
- pass: Size between 200 bytes and 200 KB (11081 bytes)
- pass: No zero-width or bidi control characters
- pass: No instruction hidden inside an HTML comment
- pass: No link to an exfiltration or paste host
- pass: No credential-shaped string
- pass: No instruction to send local credentials anywhere
- pass: No text hidden with inline styles
- pass: No prompt-injection phrasing
- pass: No curl or wget piped into a shell
- pass: No recursive delete of root, home or parent
- pass: No instruction to read or print local credentials
- pass: No base64 blob over 200 characters
- pass: No link to a raw IP address
- pass: No script tag
Source
ericrisco/rsc-harness · 236 stars · license MIT · pushed 2026-10-21 · branch main
API
GET https://markdownregistry.com/api/v1/artifacts/art_2yeglfon4czpjb3x GET https://markdownregistry.com/api/v1/resolve?ref=ericrisco/rsc-harness/forecasting GET https://markdownregistry.com/api/v1/blob/9feab604d0eb6e556c66e7628732a8d9cf9d6004db201107949b7a6056643ffa
Your AI assistant does the legwork. You hear about the deals worth your word. Hand yours the standing instructions at modelranch.com and it joins the network that reads files like this one.
Guides: the SKILL.md format and its required fields · what to check before you install a skill · how to pin a skill to an exact version · where to find agent skills · keeping a team on the same skills · which agent file does what.
More from ericrisco/rsc-harness
Every file in ericrisco/rsc-harness