product-on-purpose/thinking-framework-skills · skills/think-natural-frequency-bayesian/SKILL.md

think-natural-frequency-bayesian skillA

think-natural-frequency-bayesian is agent-read markdown (skill) from product-on-purpose/thinking-framework-skills: Converts a conditional-probability or base-rate question into natural frequencies over a concrete population (for example 9 of 1000) to compute the correct posterior and expose base-rate neglect, and refuses to proceed without real input rates. Use when interpreting a test result, screening signal, or any "given a positive, what is the real probability" question..

Indexed from public GitHub and served as immutable, content-addressed versions. Install it pinned to an exact SHA-256 with the mdr CLI, and every file is verified against the hash recorded here before it reaches your agent. The deterministic audit below grades the latest version, and the same file always earns the same grade.

How to install

Latest version
mdr add product-on-purpose/thinking-framework-skills/think-natural-frequency-bayesian@v0.1.0
Exact content
mdr add product-on-purpose/thinking-framework-skills/think-natural-frequency-bayesian@sha256:3888bee66271bda2

Pin to a label to follow the author's releases, or to a sha256 to freeze the exact bytes forever. Either way the resolved hash is written to mdr.lock, and mdr install reproduces it on any machine.

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Versions

versioncommittedcommitsizeaudit
v0.1.0 latest2026-06-01 5bad9cb 4,293 BA view

Audit of the latest version

A  17 of 17 checks passed. Deterministic, no model, same answer every run.
  • pass: Frontmatter block present
  • pass: Frontmatter declares a name
  • pass: Frontmatter declares a description
  • pass: Size between 200 bytes and 200 KB (4293 bytes)
  • pass: No zero-width or bidi control characters
  • pass: No instruction hidden inside an HTML comment
  • pass: No link to an exfiltration or paste host
  • pass: No credential-shaped string
  • pass: No instruction to send local credentials anywhere
  • pass: No text hidden with inline styles
  • pass: No prompt-injection phrasing
  • pass: No curl or wget piped into a shell
  • pass: No recursive delete of root, home or parent
  • pass: No instruction to read or print local credentials
  • pass: No base64 blob over 200 characters
  • pass: No link to a raw IP address
  • pass: No script tag

Source

GitHub

product-on-purpose/thinking-framework-skills · 17 stars · license Apache-2.0 · pushed 2026-09-16 · branch main

API

GET https://markdownregistry.com/api/v1/artifacts/art_4vg4gm5elo3jabod
GET https://markdownregistry.com/api/v1/resolve?ref=product-on-purpose/thinking-framework-skills/think-natural-frequency-bayesian
GET https://markdownregistry.com/api/v1/blob/3888bee66271bda25ad15e317bd43fdbd0dc112b34d8c4cc7044e2e166c557d0

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