think-natural-frequency-bayesian SKILL.md skillA
think-natural-frequency-bayesian from product-on-purpose/thinking-framework-skills is an agent skill: a SKILL.md folder an AI agent loads when a task calls for it.
mdr add product-on-purpose/thinking-framework-skills/think-natural-frequency-bayesian@v0.1.0Pins v0.1.0 in mdr.lock. Pin the fingerprint instead.
- Audit grade
- A, 17 of 17 checks passed
- Kind
- SKILL.md skill
- Repository
- product-on-purpose/thinking-framework-skills
- Path
skills/think-natural-frequency-bayesian/SKILL.md- Versions recorded
- 3
- Latest version
- v0.1.0, committed Oct 17, 2026
- First version recorded
- Jun 1, 2026
- Size
- 4,633 bytes
- Repository stars
- 25
- License
- Apache-2.0
Converts a conditional-probability or base-rate question into natural frequencies over a concrete population (for example 9 of 1000) to compute the correct posterior and expose base-rate neglect, and refuses to proceed without real input rates. Use when interpreting a test result, screening signal, or any "given a positive, what is the real probability" question.
Collected from public GitHub. Every version is saved exactly as it was and never changes. Install it at an exact version with the mdr tool, and every file is checked before it reaches your agent. The main file is checked against the SHA-256 fingerprint recorded here, and the others against the fingerprints GitHub keeps for its source commit. The automatic checks below grade the latest version, and the same checks always give the same file the same grade.
What the file says
<!-- thinking-framework-skills | https://github.com/product-on-purpose/thinking-framework-skills | Apache-2.0 --> # Natural-Frequency Bayesian Framing People - including experts - reason badly about conditional probabilities stated as percentages, because they neglect the base rate. Re-expressing the same facts as natural frequencies over a concrete population makes the correct answer nearly visible: "Out of 1,000, 10 have it; 9 of those test positive; of the 990 without it, ~89 also test positive; so of ~98 positives, only 9 truly have it - about 9%." The format does the work by keeping the base rate in the counts. The output is a **natural-frequency breakdown**. Honest constraint: the base rate and hit rates must be real - the format makes correct reasoning tractable, it does not invent the inputs. ## When to Use - Interpreting a test or screening result (medical, fraud, security, lead-scoring, A/B). - Any "given a positive signal, what is the actual probability the thing is true?" question. - Communicating risk to others so they do not over-read a positive. ## When NOT to Use - When you do not have real input rates and would have to invent them. …
Read the whole file at its exact version.
How to install
mdr add product-on-purpose/thinking-framework-skills/think-natural-frequency-bayesian@sha256:1b6bbeaa7d5b35b0The line at the top of this page pins the label v0.1.0, which is what most people want. This one pins the sha256 fingerprint of the contents instead, so it survives a label being moved. Either way the exact version is written to mdr.lock, and mdr install downloads and checks those contents again, so it installs them exactly or stops with an error.
[](https://markdownregistry.com/a/art_4vg4gm5elo3jabod)
3 badge image fetches in 30 days. What the badge shows.
Versions
The registry has recorded 3 versions of this file, between Jun 1, 2026 and Oct 17, 2026, about one every 69 days.
| version | committed | commit | size | audit | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| v0.1.0 latest | 2026-10-17 | 7e5bd11 | 4,633 B | A | view · diff |
| v0.1.0 | 2026-10-16 | 3b23394 | 4,482 B | A | view · diff |
| v0.1.0 | 2026-06-01 | 5bad9cb | 4,293 B | A | view |
Audit of the latest version
- pass: Frontmatter block present
- pass: Frontmatter declares a name
- pass: Frontmatter declares a description
- pass: Size between 200 bytes and 200 KB (4633 bytes)
- pass: No zero-width or bidi control characters
- pass: No instruction hidden inside an HTML comment
- pass: No link to an exfiltration or paste host
- pass: No credential-shaped string
- pass: No instruction to send local credentials anywhere
- pass: No text hidden with inline styles
- pass: No prompt-injection phrasing
- pass: No curl or wget piped into a shell
- pass: No recursive delete of root, home or parent
- pass: No instruction to read or print local credentials
- pass: No base64 blob over 200 characters
- pass: No link to a raw IP address
- pass: No script tag
Source
product-on-purpose/thinking-framework-skills · 25 stars · license Apache-2.0 · pushed 2026-11-07 · branch main
API
GET https://markdownregistry.com/api/v1/artifacts/art_4vg4gm5elo3jabod GET https://markdownregistry.com/api/v1/resolve?ref=product-on-purpose/thinking-framework-skills/think-natural-frequency-bayesian GET https://markdownregistry.com/api/v1/blob/1b6bbeaa7d5b35b02931c13e3b67f8218590f5ec87f51e8122c7559210cfe1fa
Your AI assistant does the legwork. You hear about the deals worth your word. Hand yours the standing instructions at modelranch.com and it joins the network that reads files like this one.
Guides: the SKILL.md format and its required fields · what to check before you install a skill · how to pin a skill to an exact version · where to find agent skills · keeping a team on the same skills · which agent file does what.