turnaround_story_validation_skill SKILL.md skillA

turnaround_story_validation_skill from wind-alice/alicemarket is an agent skill: a SKILL.md folder an AI agent loads when a task calls for it.

Install it, pinned
mdr add wind-alice/alicemarket/turnaround_story_validation_skill@git:20260629.563681b

Pins git:20260629.563681b in mdr.lock. Pin the fingerprint instead.

Audit grade
A, 17 of 17 checks passed
Kind
SKILL.md skill
Repository
wind-alice/alicemarket
Path
skills/turnaround_story_validation_skill/SKILL.md
Versions recorded
1
Latest version
git:20260629.563681b, committed Jun 29, 2026
Size
4,488 bytes
Repository stars
153
License
none declared

验证困境公司是否真的出现反转证据,拆解修复路径、时间窗口、失败边界与赔率条件。适用于抄底反转股、困境修复研究、故事型机会过滤等场景。.

Collected from public GitHub. Every version is saved exactly as it was and never changes. Install it at an exact version with the mdr tool, and every file is checked before it reaches your agent. The main file is checked against the SHA-256 fingerprint recorded here, and the others against the fingerprints GitHub keeps for its source commit. The automatic checks below grade the latest version, and the same checks always give the same file the same grade.

What the file says

# Turnaround Story Validation Skill

## 数据依赖与执行前置条件

推荐使用万得 `wind-mcp-skill` 获取底层数据。执行前先检查本地是否已有 `wind-mcp-skill`;若没有,提示用户安装:

```bash
# GitHub
npx skills add Wind-Information-Co-Ltd/wind-skills --skill wind-mcp-skill -g -y

# Gitee 镜像(国内)
npx skills add https://gitee.com/wind_info/wind-skills.git --skill wind-mcp-skill -g -y
```

## 技能定位

本技能用于判断一只“困境反转股”究竟是在走向真实修复,还是只是在讲一个好听但证据不足的故事。输出重点是把反转路径拆开,验证改善是否已经发生、是否可持续、失败边界在哪里,以及当前赔率是否足够覆盖风险。

## 执行流程

### Step 1:明确反转命题

先说清楚市场在押注哪一种反转:

- 经营修复
- 盈利修复
- 资产负债表修复
- 行业景气反转
- 治理与管理层修复

如果连反转对象都说不清,就说明这更像情绪交易而不是可研究命题。

### Step 2:复盘公司为何陷入困境

反转判断必须先理解“之前为什么变差”。要明确:

- 业绩恶化的根因是什么
- 问题是外部周期、内部经营还是资本结构造成
- 困境是短期冲击还是结构性损伤
- 历史下滑最关键的变量是什么

只有理解旧问题,才能判断新改善是否真正对症。

### Step 3:检查改善证据是否出现

围绕反转命题,寻找已出现的客观变化,例如:

- 订单、收入、利润率、现金流开始修复
- 核心业务或客户结构改善
- 资产处置、融资、偿债压力缓解
- 管理层更换、治理改善、经营纪律修复

这一阶段强调“已经发生的证据”,而不是“未来可能会变好”的空泛叙事。

### Step 4:评估修复路径与时间窗口

即使改善已经出现,也要判断:

- 改善是阶段性反弹还是长期修复起点
- 需要多久才能兑现到财务与估值层面
- 过程中最容易卡在哪个环节
- 公司还有没有足够时间和资源把修复完成

时间窗口尤其重要,许多反转逻辑会输在“方向对,但来不及”。

### Step 5:建立成功与失败情景

至少搭建两个场景:

- 反转成功时,核心变量如何改善,股价弹性从哪里来
- 反转失败时,最先破坏逻辑的变量是什么,损失边界在哪里

这一步是把“故事”转成“赔率与风险”。

### Step 6:形成验证结论与行动条件

最终明确回答:

- 这是已有证据支持的反转,还是仍停留在叙事层
- 如果要继续跟踪,最重要的里程碑是什么
…

Read the whole file at its exact version.

How to install

The exact contents, by fingerprint
mdr add wind-alice/alicemarket/turnaround_story_validation_skill@sha256:a59cd8cc4f884f9f

The line at the top of this page pins the label git:20260629.563681b, which is what most people want. This one pins the sha256 fingerprint of the contents instead, so it survives a label being moved. Either way the exact version is written to mdr.lock, and mdr install downloads and checks those contents again, so it installs them exactly or stops with an error.

Badge

mdr badge

[![mdr](https://markdownregistry.com/badge/art_aketzomld46kkbnx.svg)](https://markdownregistry.com/a/art_aketzomld46kkbnx)

4 badge image fetches in 30 days. What the badge shows.

Versions

The registry has recorded 1 version of this file, committed on Jun 29, 2026.

versioncommittedcommitsizeaudit
git:20260629.563681b latest2026-06-29 563681b 4,488 BA view

Audit of the latest version

A  17 of 17 checks passed. Fixed automatic checks with no AI involved, so the same checks give the same answer every run.
  • pass: Frontmatter block present
  • pass: Frontmatter declares a name
  • pass: Frontmatter declares a description
  • pass: Size between 200 bytes and 200 KB (4488 bytes)
  • pass: No zero-width or bidi control characters
  • pass: No instruction hidden inside an HTML comment
  • pass: No link to an exfiltration or paste host
  • pass: No credential-shaped string
  • pass: No instruction to send local credentials anywhere
  • pass: No text hidden with inline styles
  • pass: No prompt-injection phrasing
  • pass: No curl or wget piped into a shell
  • pass: No recursive delete of root, home or parent
  • pass: No instruction to read or print local credentials
  • pass: No base64 blob over 200 characters
  • pass: No link to a raw IP address
  • pass: No script tag

Source

GitHub

wind-alice/alicemarket · 153 stars · license none declared · pushed 2026-10-30 · branch main

API

GET https://markdownregistry.com/api/v1/artifacts/art_aketzomld46kkbnx
GET https://markdownregistry.com/api/v1/resolve?ref=wind-alice/alicemarket/turnaround_story_validation_skill
GET https://markdownregistry.com/api/v1/blob/a59cd8cc4f884f9f09f7a12a7ba6f2b0f8a0924e269dfbcde932e113ee03779a

Your AI assistant does the legwork. You hear about the deals worth your word. Hand yours the standing instructions at modelranch.com and it joins the network that reads files like this one.

Guides: the SKILL.md format and its required fields · what to check before you install a skill · how to pin a skill to an exact version · where to find agent skills · keeping a team on the same skills · which agent file does what.

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