think-interval-calibration-check SKILL.md skillA
think-interval-calibration-check from product-on-purpose/thinking-framework-skills is an agent skill: a SKILL.md folder an AI agent loads when a task calls for it.
mdr add product-on-purpose/thinking-framework-skills/think-interval-calibration-check@v0.1.0Pins v0.1.0 in mdr.lock. Pin the fingerprint instead.
- Audit grade
- A, 17 of 17 checks passed
- Kind
- SKILL.md skill
- Repository
- product-on-purpose/thinking-framework-skills
- Path
skills/think-interval-calibration-check/SKILL.md- Versions recorded
- 2
- Latest version
- v0.1.0, committed Oct 17, 2026
- First version recorded
- Jun 12, 2026
- Size
- 10,921 bytes
- Repository stars
- 25
- License
- Apache-2.0
Audits whether a stated confidence interval means what it claims by running an equivalent-bet indifference test on its width and scoring nominal confidence against the actual hit rate, emitting corrected intervals and a calibration scorecard. Use when a human-stated interval or confidence number drives a consequential plan, forecast, or commitment and has never been audited, and the worry is overprecision rather than a wrong central estimate. Calibrates human-stated uncertainty only, never the…
Collected from public GitHub. Every version is saved exactly as it was and never changes. Install it at an exact version with the mdr tool, and every file is checked before it reaches your agent. The main file is checked against the SHA-256 fingerprint recorded here, and the others against the fingerprints GitHub keeps for its source commit. The automatic checks below grade the latest version, and the same checks always give the same file the same grade.
What the file says
<!-- thinking-framework-skills | https://github.com/product-on-purpose/thinking-framework-skills | Apache-2.0 --> # Interval Calibration Check People state uncertainty as intervals - "two to four weeks, 90 percent sure" - and those intervals are reliably too narrow. Overprecision is the most robust form of overconfidence: stated 90 percent intervals contain the true value far less than 90 percent of the time, and subjective intervals are sometimes only a fraction as wide as the judge's own information would warrant. A stated "90" that historically hits 50 is not a confidence level, it is a habit of speech, and everything downstream that takes the number literally - an expected-value calculation, a risk model, a commitment - inherits the error. This method interrogates the WIDTH of a stated uncertainty: does your 90 mean 90? It runs two coupled moves that both operate on the width and never on the location of the estimate - an **equivalent-bet indifference test** at elicitation time, and **hit-rate scoring** against resolved outcomes - and emits a **calibration scorecard**. The durable move is not asking "how sure are you?" again. It is converting that question into a concrete… …
Read the whole file at its exact version.
How to install
mdr add product-on-purpose/thinking-framework-skills/think-interval-calibration-check@sha256:a3293d2bca639facThe line at the top of this page pins the label v0.1.0, which is what most people want. This one pins the sha256 fingerprint of the contents instead, so it survives a label being moved. Either way the exact version is written to mdr.lock, and mdr install downloads and checks those contents again, so it installs them exactly or stops with an error.
[](https://markdownregistry.com/a/art_fwrzciw7yhreeepk)
3 badge image fetches in 30 days. What the badge shows.
Versions
The registry has recorded 2 versions of this file, between Jun 12, 2026 and Oct 17, 2026, about one every 128 days.
| version | committed | commit | size | audit | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| v0.1.0 latest | 2026-10-17 | 7e5bd11 | 10,921 B | A | view · diff |
| v0.1.0 | 2026-06-12 | 8975a77 | 10,751 B | A | view |
Audit of the latest version
- pass: Frontmatter block present
- pass: Frontmatter declares a name
- pass: Frontmatter declares a description
- pass: Size between 200 bytes and 200 KB (10921 bytes)
- pass: No zero-width or bidi control characters
- pass: No instruction hidden inside an HTML comment
- pass: No link to an exfiltration or paste host
- pass: No credential-shaped string
- pass: No instruction to send local credentials anywhere
- pass: No text hidden with inline styles
- pass: No prompt-injection phrasing
- pass: No curl or wget piped into a shell
- pass: No recursive delete of root, home or parent
- pass: No instruction to read or print local credentials
- pass: No base64 blob over 200 characters
- pass: No link to a raw IP address
- pass: No script tag
Source
product-on-purpose/thinking-framework-skills · 25 stars · license Apache-2.0 · pushed 2026-11-07 · branch main
API
GET https://markdownregistry.com/api/v1/artifacts/art_fwrzciw7yhreeepk GET https://markdownregistry.com/api/v1/resolve?ref=product-on-purpose/thinking-framework-skills/think-interval-calibration-check GET https://markdownregistry.com/api/v1/blob/a3293d2bca639facbee423c03ffbee72c5495b5d32376ba31d45d1ec355b413e
Your AI assistant does the legwork. You hear about the deals worth your word. Hand yours the standing instructions at modelranch.com and it joins the network that reads files like this one.
Guides: the SKILL.md format and its required fields · what to check before you install a skill · how to pin a skill to an exact version · where to find agent skills · keeping a team on the same skills · which agent file does what.