llm-calibration-logprobs SKILL.md skillA
llm-calibration-logprobs from scdenney/open-science-skills is an agent skill: a SKILL.md folder an AI agent loads when a task calls for it.
mdr add scdenney/open-science-skills/llm-calibration-logprobs@git:20261105.dee0bc5Pins git:20261105.dee0bc5 in mdr.lock. Pin the fingerprint instead.
- Audit grade
- A, 17 of 17 checks passed
- Kind
- SKILL.md skill
- Repository
- scdenney/open-science-skills
- Path
plugin/skills/llm-calibration-logprobs/SKILL.md- Versions recorded
- 8
- Latest version
- git:20261105.dee0bc5, committed Nov 5, 2026
- First version recorded
- Jul 2, 2026
- Size
- 11,710 bytes
- Repository stars
- 69
- License
- a license file GitHub does not identify
Reads model uncertainty from token log-probabilities. Covers collecting logprobs and aggregating multi-token labels, confidence tiers and margins for triage, calibration assessment with ECE, Brier scores, and reliability diagrams against human labels, responsible downstream use of confidence, and reproducibility archives. Use when the user asks about classifier confidence by item, logprobs, top-k tokens, calibration, ECE, Brier, reliability diagrams, or routing low-confidence cases to human…
Collected from public GitHub. Every version is saved exactly as it was and never changes. Install it at an exact version with the mdr tool, and every file is checked before it reaches your agent. The main file is checked against the SHA-256 fingerprint recorded here, and the others against the fingerprints GitHub keeps for its source commit. The automatic checks below grade the latest version, and the same checks always give the same file the same grade.
What the file says
# Reading a Model's Own Uncertainty from Token Log-Probabilities ## Instructions This skill covers **within-model** confidence: how sure one model is about each decision, read from the token log-probabilities it emits, and whether that confidence is *calibrated* against ground truth. Agreement across several independent models is a different kind of evidence — when a pipeline uses both, report both. Codebook design and human-validation statistics (κ, F1) belong to `text-classification`; cross-reference rather than re-derive them. ### 1. What a Logprob Can and Cannot Tell You - Use logprobs when you need a per-item, continuous confidence signal. It comes free with the forward pass that produced the label and answers "how sure was the model about *this* classification?", which a hard 0/1 label cannot. - A logprob is the model's subjective probability under its own distribution, **not a probability of correctness**. A model can assign 0.95 to labels that are right 70% of the time. Treat it as a claim about confidence that calibration (§4) tests. …
Read the whole file at its exact version.
How to install
mdr add scdenney/open-science-skills/llm-calibration-logprobs@sha256:692c50126158263fThe line at the top of this page pins the label git:20261105.dee0bc5, which is what most people want. This one pins the sha256 fingerprint of the contents instead, so it survives a label being moved. Either way the exact version is written to mdr.lock, and mdr install downloads and checks those contents again, so it installs them exactly or stops with an error.
[](https://markdownregistry.com/a/art_hkki3dpef4b2stw7)
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Versions
The registry has recorded 8 versions of this file, between Jul 2, 2026 and Nov 5, 2026, about one every 18 days.
| version | committed | commit | size | audit | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| git:20261105.dee0bc5 latest | 2026-11-05 | dee0bc5 | 11,710 B | A | view · diff |
| git:20261008.697c89f | 2026-10-08 | 697c89f | 11,741 B | A | view · diff |
| git:20260909.08bf795 | 2026-09-09 | 08bf795 | 19,681 B | A | view · diff |
| git:20260905.c12f077 | 2026-09-05 | c12f077 | 19,780 B | A | view · diff |
| git:20260905.39e8276 | 2026-09-05 | 39e8276 | 19,749 B | A | view · diff |
| git:20260902.da5a263 | 2026-09-02 | da5a263 | 19,282 B | A | view · diff |
| git:20260808.46edbfc | 2026-08-08 | 46edbfc | 18,674 B | A | view · diff |
| git:20260702.539af7b | 2026-07-02 | 539af7b | 18,800 B | A | view |
Audit of the latest version
- pass: Frontmatter block present
- pass: Frontmatter declares a name
- pass: Frontmatter declares a description
- pass: Size between 200 bytes and 200 KB (11710 bytes)
- pass: No zero-width or bidi control characters
- pass: No instruction hidden inside an HTML comment
- pass: No link to an exfiltration or paste host
- pass: No credential-shaped string
- pass: No instruction to send local credentials anywhere
- pass: No text hidden with inline styles
- pass: No prompt-injection phrasing
- pass: No curl or wget piped into a shell
- pass: No recursive delete of root, home or parent
- pass: No instruction to read or print local credentials
- pass: No base64 blob over 200 characters
- pass: No link to a raw IP address
- pass: No script tag
Source
scdenney/open-science-skills · 69 stars · license a license file GitHub does not identify · pushed 2026-11-05 · branch main
API
GET https://markdownregistry.com/api/v1/artifacts/art_hkki3dpef4b2stw7 GET https://markdownregistry.com/api/v1/resolve?ref=scdenney/open-science-skills/llm-calibration-logprobs GET https://markdownregistry.com/api/v1/blob/692c50126158263f685943e485a67bd5110b0777b3d2c46c46a7db7e3ac3623c
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