product-on-purpose/thinking-framework-skills · skills/think-reference-class-forecasting/SKILL.md

think-reference-class-forecasting skillA

think-reference-class-forecasting is agent-read markdown (skill) from product-on-purpose/thinking-framework-skills: Produces a reference-class estimate by defining a class of similar past cases, taking their base-rate distribution of outcomes, and anchoring the forecast on that outside view rather than the optimistic inside view, with a conservative adjustment for specifics. Use when forecasting cost, time, or odds of success for a project prone to optimism or the planning fallacy..

Indexed from public GitHub and served as immutable, content-addressed versions. Install it pinned to an exact SHA-256 with the mdr CLI, and every file is verified against the hash recorded here before it reaches your agent. The deterministic audit below grades the latest version, and the same file always earns the same grade.

How to install

Latest version
mdr add product-on-purpose/thinking-framework-skills/think-reference-class-forecasting@v0.1.0
Exact content
mdr add product-on-purpose/thinking-framework-skills/think-reference-class-forecasting@sha256:cd7ac42234c36e45

Pin to a label to follow the author's releases, or to a sha256 to freeze the exact bytes forever. Either way the resolved hash is written to mdr.lock, and mdr install reproduces it on any machine.

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Versions

versioncommittedcommitsizeaudit
v0.1.0 latest2026-06-01 5bad9cb 4,086 BA view

Audit of the latest version

A  17 of 17 checks passed. Deterministic, no model, same answer every run.
  • pass: Frontmatter block present
  • pass: Frontmatter declares a name
  • pass: Frontmatter declares a description
  • pass: Size between 200 bytes and 200 KB (4086 bytes)
  • pass: No zero-width or bidi control characters
  • pass: No instruction hidden inside an HTML comment
  • pass: No link to an exfiltration or paste host
  • pass: No credential-shaped string
  • pass: No instruction to send local credentials anywhere
  • pass: No text hidden with inline styles
  • pass: No prompt-injection phrasing
  • pass: No curl or wget piped into a shell
  • pass: No recursive delete of root, home or parent
  • pass: No instruction to read or print local credentials
  • pass: No base64 blob over 200 characters
  • pass: No link to a raw IP address
  • pass: No script tag

Source

GitHub

product-on-purpose/thinking-framework-skills · 17 stars · license Apache-2.0 · pushed 2026-09-16 · branch main

API

GET https://markdownregistry.com/api/v1/artifacts/art_hy6beviotbiai2pa
GET https://markdownregistry.com/api/v1/resolve?ref=product-on-purpose/thinking-framework-skills/think-reference-class-forecasting
GET https://markdownregistry.com/api/v1/blob/cd7ac42234c36e45d2ea8b423d7c99576c67ca5011d2ee1e5e8821dd93521068

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