think-reference-class-forecasting SKILL.md skillA
think-reference-class-forecasting from product-on-purpose/thinking-framework-skills is an agent skill: a SKILL.md folder an AI agent loads when a task calls for it.
mdr add product-on-purpose/thinking-framework-skills/think-reference-class-forecasting@v0.1.0Pins v0.1.0 in mdr.lock. Pin the fingerprint instead.
- Audit grade
- A, 17 of 17 checks passed
- Kind
- SKILL.md skill
- Repository
- product-on-purpose/thinking-framework-skills
- Path
skills/think-reference-class-forecasting/SKILL.md- Versions recorded
- 2
- Latest version
- v0.1.0, committed Oct 21, 2026
- First version recorded
- Jun 1, 2026
- Size
- 4,340 bytes
- Repository stars
- 25
- License
- Apache-2.0
Produces a reference-class estimate by defining a class of similar past cases, taking their base-rate distribution of outcomes, and anchoring the forecast on that outside view rather than the optimistic inside view, with a conservative adjustment for specifics. Use when forecasting cost, time, or odds of success for a project prone to optimism or the planning fallacy.
Collected from public GitHub. Every version is saved exactly as it was and never changes. Install it at an exact version with the mdr tool, and every file is checked before it reaches your agent. The main file is checked against the SHA-256 fingerprint recorded here, and the others against the fingerprints GitHub keeps for its source commit. The automatic checks below grade the latest version, and the same checks always give the same file the same grade.
What the file says
<!-- thinking-framework-skills | https://github.com/product-on-purpose/thinking-framework-skills | Apache-2.0 --> # Reference Class Forecasting People forecast from the inside view, building an estimate from their own plan's details, which invites optimism and the planning fallacy. This skill replaces that with the outside view: find a reference class of similar past cases, take the base-rate distribution of how they actually turned out, and anchor the forecast on that, adjusting only cautiously for genuine specifics. The output is a **reference-class estimate**. The honest constraint: it requires real base-rate data; inventing a distribution is worse than admitting uncertainty. ## When to Use - Forecasting cost, time, or odds of success for something with comparable precedents. - The inside-view estimate is likely optimistic. - High-stakes commitments prone to the planning fallacy. ## When NOT to Use - Genuinely novel undertakings with no comparable reference class. - When you have no real base-rate data and would have to invent it. - When the specifics genuinely dominate and no class is comparable. - When a point certainty is expected (this produces a distribution). …
Read the whole file at its exact version.
How to install
mdr add product-on-purpose/thinking-framework-skills/think-reference-class-forecasting@sha256:ab26b52122422e0bThe line at the top of this page pins the label v0.1.0, which is what most people want. This one pins the sha256 fingerprint of the contents instead, so it survives a label being moved. Either way the exact version is written to mdr.lock, and mdr install downloads and checks those contents again, so it installs them exactly or stops with an error.
[](https://markdownregistry.com/a/art_hy6beviotbiai2pa)
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Versions
The registry has recorded 2 versions of this file, between Jun 1, 2026 and Oct 21, 2026, about one every 142 days.
| version | committed | commit | size | audit | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| v0.1.0 latest | 2026-10-21 | 03a390a | 4,340 B | A | view · diff |
| v0.1.0 | 2026-06-01 | 5bad9cb | 4,086 B | A | view |
Audit of the latest version
- pass: Frontmatter block present
- pass: Frontmatter declares a name
- pass: Frontmatter declares a description
- pass: Size between 200 bytes and 200 KB (4340 bytes)
- pass: No zero-width or bidi control characters
- pass: No instruction hidden inside an HTML comment
- pass: No link to an exfiltration or paste host
- pass: No credential-shaped string
- pass: No instruction to send local credentials anywhere
- pass: No text hidden with inline styles
- pass: No prompt-injection phrasing
- pass: No curl or wget piped into a shell
- pass: No recursive delete of root, home or parent
- pass: No instruction to read or print local credentials
- pass: No base64 blob over 200 characters
- pass: No link to a raw IP address
- pass: No script tag
Source
product-on-purpose/thinking-framework-skills · 25 stars · license Apache-2.0 · pushed 2026-11-07 · branch main
API
GET https://markdownregistry.com/api/v1/artifacts/art_hy6beviotbiai2pa GET https://markdownregistry.com/api/v1/resolve?ref=product-on-purpose/thinking-framework-skills/think-reference-class-forecasting GET https://markdownregistry.com/api/v1/blob/ab26b52122422e0b47813cbf391f19d7e3dfb5137b9b2b5f4c75ac0249a0632c
Your AI assistant does the legwork. You hear about the deals worth your word. Hand yours the standing instructions at modelranch.com and it joins the network that reads files like this one.
Guides: the SKILL.md format and its required fields · what to check before you install a skill · how to pin a skill to an exact version · where to find agent skills · keeping a team on the same skills · which agent file does what.