estimation-under-uncertainty SKILL.md skillA
estimation-under-uncertainty from robsonkades/agent-skills is an agent skill: a SKILL.md folder an AI agent loads when a task calls for it.
mdr add robsonkades/agent-skills/estimation-under-uncertainty@git:20261016.c769bd8Pins git:20261016.c769bd8 in mdr.lock. Pin the fingerprint instead.
- Audit grade
- A, 17 of 17 checks passed
- Kind
- SKILL.md skill
- Repository
- robsonkades/agent-skills
- Path
skills/estimation-under-uncertainty/SKILL.md- Versions recorded
- 5
- Latest version
- git:20261016.c769bd8, committed Oct 16, 2026
- First version recorded
- Sep 6, 2026
- Size
- 8,186 bytes
- Repository stars
- 3
- License
- Apache-2.0
Producing a software estimate that carries its own uncertainty instead of hiding it: a range with explicit probability assumptions when supported, decomposition, PERT and the limits of summing task estimates, calibrating against what this team has actually done, and keeping estimate, target and commitment as three separate things. Use when asked how long something will take, when a single date is being requested for work that has not been broken down, when an estimate is being treated as a…
Collected from public GitHub. Every version is saved exactly as it was and never changes. Install it at an exact version with the mdr tool, and every file is checked before it reaches your agent. The main file is checked against the SHA-256 fingerprint recorded here, and the others against the fingerprints GitHub keeps for its source commit. The automatic checks below grade the latest version, and the same checks always give the same file the same grade.
What the file says
# Estimation Under Uncertainty ## Purpose An estimate predicts work or completion under assumptions. A single number without its uncertainty can be planned against as certainty. Even a numerical range can mislead when its coverage, scope or calendar assumptions are invented. The job is to support the planning decision with a forecast and its uncertainty when evidence permits, or identify what must be learned before a number is useful. ## Workflow 1. **Identify the decision and forecast event.** Reuse supplied scope, history and constraints; ask only for missing information that changes the decision (requirements-and-acceptance). Give a conditional range only when its bounds have a basis; pressure for a number does not supply one. Otherwise state what prevents forecasting and the next useful investigation. Define effort versus elapsed time, working versus calendar days, forecast date, start point, total versus remaining work, completion criteria, capacity and dependencies. 2. **Decompose where it exposes omitted work or a material dependency.** Comparable whole-change history may already be sufficient. Stop when more detail would not change the decision; …
Read the whole file at its exact version.
How to install
mdr add robsonkades/agent-skills/estimation-under-uncertainty@sha256:eae3d21ab489f5b4The line at the top of this page pins the label git:20261016.c769bd8, which is what most people want. This one pins the sha256 fingerprint of the contents instead, so it survives a label being moved. Either way the exact version is written to mdr.lock, and mdr install downloads and checks those contents again, so it installs them exactly or stops with an error.
[](https://markdownregistry.com/a/art_pgyczubsuykxhp6n)
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Versions
The registry has recorded 5 versions of this file, between Sep 6, 2026 and Oct 16, 2026, about one every 10 days.
| version | committed | commit | size | audit | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| git:20261016.c769bd8 latest | 2026-10-16 | c769bd8 | 8,186 B | A | view · diff |
| git:20260927.9ecadfd | 2026-09-27 | 9ecadfd | 7,294 B | A | view · diff |
| git:20260923.832673e | 2026-09-23 | 832673e | 6,870 B | A | view · diff |
| git:20260911.37b054b | 2026-09-11 | 37b054b | 6,605 B | A | view · diff |
| git:20260906.e6ad4bd | 2026-09-06 | e6ad4bd | 6,363 B | A | view |
Audit of the latest version
- pass: Frontmatter block present
- pass: Frontmatter declares a name
- pass: Frontmatter declares a description
- pass: Size between 200 bytes and 200 KB (8186 bytes)
- pass: No zero-width or bidi control characters
- pass: No instruction hidden inside an HTML comment
- pass: No link to an exfiltration or paste host
- pass: No credential-shaped string
- pass: No instruction to send local credentials anywhere
- pass: No text hidden with inline styles
- pass: No prompt-injection phrasing
- pass: No curl or wget piped into a shell
- pass: No recursive delete of root, home or parent
- pass: No instruction to read or print local credentials
- pass: No base64 blob over 200 characters
- pass: No link to a raw IP address
- pass: No script tag
Source
robsonkades/agent-skills · 3 stars · license Apache-2.0 · pushed 2026-10-28 · branch main
API
GET https://markdownregistry.com/api/v1/artifacts/art_pgyczubsuykxhp6n GET https://markdownregistry.com/api/v1/resolve?ref=robsonkades/agent-skills/estimation-under-uncertainty GET https://markdownregistry.com/api/v1/blob/eae3d21ab489f5b440c46404f8eff4638aeeb11c64774c4d8eb45b9ad6900be2
Your AI assistant does the legwork. You hear about the deals worth your word. Hand yours the standing instructions at modelranch.com and it joins the network that reads files like this one.
Guides: the SKILL.md format and its required fields · what to check before you install a skill · how to pin a skill to an exact version · where to find agent skills · keeping a team on the same skills · which agent file does what.