think-expected-value-decision-tree SKILL.md skillA
think-expected-value-decision-tree from product-on-purpose/thinking-framework-skills is an agent skill: a SKILL.md folder an AI agent loads when a task calls for it.
mdr add product-on-purpose/thinking-framework-skills/think-expected-value-decision-tree@v0.1.0Pins v0.1.0 in mdr.lock. Pin the fingerprint instead.
- Audit grade
- A, 17 of 17 checks passed
- Kind
- SKILL.md skill
- Repository
- product-on-purpose/thinking-framework-skills
- Path
skills/think-expected-value-decision-tree/SKILL.md- Versions recorded
- 2
- Latest version
- v0.1.0, committed Oct 16, 2026
- First version recorded
- Jun 9, 2026
- Size
- 9,612 bytes
- Repository stars
- 25
- License
- Apache-2.0
Evaluates competing actions under uncertainty by building a decision tree of choice and chance nodes, placing explicit probabilities on outcomes the decider does not control, rolling the tree back to an expected value per option, recommending the best-EV branch, and adding a what-flips-it note naming the probability or value that would reverse the choice. Use when a decision turns on uncertain outcomes you can put rough probabilities on, when the structure is sequential…
Collected from public GitHub. Every version is saved exactly as it was and never changes. Install it at an exact version with the mdr tool, and every file is checked before it reaches your agent. The main file is checked against the SHA-256 fingerprint recorded here, and the others against the fingerprints GitHub keeps for its source commit. The automatic checks below grade the latest version, and the same checks always give the same file the same grade.
What the file says
<!-- thinking-framework-skills | https://github.com/product-on-purpose/thinking-framework-skills | Apache-2.0 --> # Expected Value Decision Tree When a decision turns on outcomes you do not control, the reflex is to argue the options in prose and decide on a hunch. An expected-value decision tree refuses that. It prices the uncertainty: lay out the options as a tree of **choice nodes** (branches the decider controls) and **chance nodes** (branches nature controls, each carrying a probability), put values at the leaves, then **roll the tree back** right to left so every chance node collapses to its expected value (the sum of probability times value) and every choice node keeps its best branch. What survives the rollback is the highest-EV option and the path that produces it. The load-bearing ingredient, the thing a deterministic option matrix cannot express, is the chance node. The output is a **decision tree with rolled-back EVs, the chosen branch, and a what-flips-it note**, never a bare EV number presented as the answer. ## When to Use …
Read the whole file at its exact version.
How to install
mdr add product-on-purpose/thinking-framework-skills/think-expected-value-decision-tree@sha256:d97ecfad3b27beabThe line at the top of this page pins the label v0.1.0, which is what most people want. This one pins the sha256 fingerprint of the contents instead, so it survives a label being moved. Either way the exact version is written to mdr.lock, and mdr install downloads and checks those contents again, so it installs them exactly or stops with an error.
[](https://markdownregistry.com/a/art_zsbm3n4m23er2fg7)
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Versions
The registry has recorded 2 versions of this file, between Jun 9, 2026 and Oct 16, 2026, about one every 128 days.
| version | committed | commit | size | audit | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| v0.1.0 latest | 2026-10-16 | 3b23394 | 9,612 B | A | view · diff |
| v0.1.0 | 2026-06-09 | 12f4613 | 9,571 B | A | view |
Audit of the latest version
- pass: Frontmatter block present
- pass: Frontmatter declares a name
- pass: Frontmatter declares a description
- pass: Size between 200 bytes and 200 KB (9612 bytes)
- pass: No zero-width or bidi control characters
- pass: No instruction hidden inside an HTML comment
- pass: No link to an exfiltration or paste host
- pass: No credential-shaped string
- pass: No instruction to send local credentials anywhere
- pass: No text hidden with inline styles
- pass: No prompt-injection phrasing
- pass: No curl or wget piped into a shell
- pass: No recursive delete of root, home or parent
- pass: No instruction to read or print local credentials
- pass: No base64 blob over 200 characters
- pass: No link to a raw IP address
- pass: No script tag
Source
product-on-purpose/thinking-framework-skills · 25 stars · license Apache-2.0 · pushed 2026-11-07 · branch main
API
GET https://markdownregistry.com/api/v1/artifacts/art_zsbm3n4m23er2fg7 GET https://markdownregistry.com/api/v1/resolve?ref=product-on-purpose/thinking-framework-skills/think-expected-value-decision-tree GET https://markdownregistry.com/api/v1/blob/d97ecfad3b27beab3f4163f3533282da24caa5859852b6a208d88a5a6957a7bf
Your AI assistant does the legwork. You hear about the deals worth your word. Hand yours the standing instructions at modelranch.com and it joins the network that reads files like this one.
Guides: the SKILL.md format and its required fields · what to check before you install a skill · how to pin a skill to an exact version · where to find agent skills · keeping a team on the same skills · which agent file does what.