ai-operations-method-prediction SKILL.md skillA
ai-operations-method-prediction from luyu2026/skill-bible is an agent skill: a SKILL.md folder an AI agent loads when a task calls for it.
mdr add luyu2026/skill-bible/ai-operations-method-prediction@git:20260930.8d6ecbbPins git:20260930.8d6ecbb in mdr.lock. Pin the fingerprint instead.
- Audit grade
- A, 17 of 17 checks passed
- Kind
- SKILL.md skill
- Repository
- luyu2026/skill-bible
- Path
ai-operations-skills/ai-operations-method-prediction/SKILL.md- Versions recorded
- 2
- Latest version
- git:20260930.8d6ecbb, committed Sep 30, 2026
- First version recorded
- Sep 30, 2026
- Size
- 2,684 bytes
- Repository stars
- 214
- License
- a license file GitHub does not identify
《Prediction Machines》· AI 商业方法论：预测成本下降 + 判断×预测×数据×行动 + 互补资产。 触发词：「预测机器」「AI商业价值」「人机分工」「AI定价」「AI壁垒」。.
Collected from public GitHub. Every version is saved exactly as it was and never changes. Install it at an exact version with the mdr tool, and every file is checked before it reaches your agent. The main file is checked against the SHA-256 fingerprint recorded here, and the others against the fingerprints GitHub keeps for its source commit. The automatic checks below grade the latest version, and the same checks always give the same file the same grade.
What the file says
# 《Prediction Machines》· AI 商业方法论 > 预测成本下降 + 判断×预测×数据×行动 + 互补资产，判断 AI 产品的商业价值与壁垒。 ## 核心框架 ### 1. AI = 预测成本下降（Economics of AI） - **适用场景**：判断 AI 产品商业价值、定价与替代逻辑 - **步骤**：识别预测任务 → 成本重估（预测边际成本趋近零）→ 重新设计流程（人判断，AI 预测） - **输出物**：AI 化机会清单 ### 2. 判断 × 预测 × 数据 × 行动（决策框架） - **适用场景**：AI 产品设计、人机分工 - **步骤**：预测（AI）→ 判断（人）→ 数据（燃料）→ 行动（闭环） - **输出物**：人机分工设计 ### 3. 互补资产（AI 价值的另一半） - **适用场景**：判断 AI 壁垒与差异化 - **步骤**：识别核心预测能力 → 识别互补资产（品牌/渠道/关系/数据）→ 组合壁垒 - **输出物**：AI 产品壁垒分析 ## 决策规则（8条） 1. 判断流程是否值得 AI 化 → 看是否依赖预测 2. AI 预测已便宜 → 重新设计流程（预测便宜改变决策方式） 3. 设计人机分工 → AI 做预测、人做判断 4. 评估 AI 壁垒 → 看互补资产（模型本身易复制） 5. AI 产品定价 → 按"预测价值"定价而非成本 6. 数据是燃料 → 先解决数据获取 7. AI 化推进受阻 → 从低风险预测任务开始 8. 判断 AI 投资 → 看预测任务的价值增量 ## 检查清单 - [ ] 识别了产品中的预测任务 - [ ] 评估了 AI 化价值增量 - [ ] 人机分工明确（AI 预测/人判断） - [ ] 数据来源与质量确认 - [ ] 互补资产识别 - [ ] 定价基于预测价值 - [ ] 合规与伦理检查 ## 反模式 - 为 AI 而 AI（没有预测任务硬上） - 让 AI 做判断 - 只买模型不建数据 - 忽视互补资产 - 按成本定价 ## 边界声明（≥3条） - 成书于 2018 年（大模型前），生成式 AI 超出"预测"框架需补充 - 经济学框架宏观，运营细节覆盖少 - 案例以西方企业为主，中国语境需适配 - 作者立场：有"预测万能"倾向，忽视伦理与创造性风险 ## 诚实说明 提炼基于《Prediction Machines》（Agrawal, Gans and Goldfarb, 2018）公开章节与权威解读，信息截止 2026-09；非原文的直接推断已标注。 > 本 Skill 由陆羽Skill生成。
Read the whole file at its exact version.
How to install
mdr add luyu2026/skill-bible/ai-operations-method-prediction@sha256:0113a7972147bee6The line at the top of this page pins the label git:20260930.8d6ecbb, which is what most people want. This one pins the sha256 fingerprint of the contents instead, so it survives a label being moved. Either way the exact version is written to mdr.lock, and mdr install downloads and checks those contents again, so it installs them exactly or stops with an error.
[](https://markdownregistry.com/a/art_iweswu6x3fodk3i4)
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Versions
The registry has recorded 2 versions of this file, all committed on Sep 30, 2026.
| version | committed | commit | size | audit | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| git:20260930.8d6ecbb latest | 2026-09-30 | 8d6ecbb | 2,684 B | A | view · diff |
| git:20260930.08806af | 2026-09-30 | 08806af | 2,684 B | A | view |
Audit of the latest version
- pass: Frontmatter block present
- pass: Frontmatter declares a name
- pass: Frontmatter declares a description
- pass: Size between 200 bytes and 200 KB (2684 bytes)
- pass: No zero-width or bidi control characters
- pass: No instruction hidden inside an HTML comment
- pass: No link to an exfiltration or paste host
- pass: No credential-shaped string
- pass: No instruction to send local credentials anywhere
- pass: No text hidden with inline styles
- pass: No prompt-injection phrasing
- pass: No curl or wget piped into a shell
- pass: No recursive delete of root, home or parent
- pass: No instruction to read or print local credentials
- pass: No base64 blob over 200 characters
- pass: No link to a raw IP address
- pass: No script tag
Source
luyu2026/skill-bible · 214 stars · license a license file GitHub does not identify · pushed 2026-11-03 · branch main
API
GET https://markdownregistry.com/api/v1/artifacts/art_iweswu6x3fodk3i4 GET https://markdownregistry.com/api/v1/resolve?ref=luyu2026/skill-bible/ai-operations-method-prediction GET https://markdownregistry.com/api/v1/blob/0113a7972147bee62292e8ef90ef917f8145128f253bb78fce1f310f7f659656
Your AI assistant does the legwork. You hear about the deals worth your word. Hand yours the standing instructions at modelranch.com and it joins the network that reads files like this one.
Guides: the SKILL.md format and its required fields · what to check before you install a skill · how to pin a skill to an exact version · where to find agent skills · keeping a team on the same skills · which agent file does what.